Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

I buy a lot of stuff, both personally and business.  For business I feel as a whole we are pretty disciplined, personally I guess not so much so but still not terrible.  I know the cost of construction - everything from building permits to framing lumber to all things excavation - the cost of construction is up 40%-50% hands down.  What used to cost $400k now costs $600k.  That I’m pretty used to. Land costing $80k instead of $30 - that's harder to get used to, but I'm trying.

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But what has been shocking me as of late is the daily spends - the coffees that used to be $1.25 at Turkey Hill are 2 bucks, a coffee at a random gas station can be $2.50, used to be 80 cents.  I got a small ice cream cone for $6.50 not a she-she fancy place but a random hole in the wall outside Ellenville.   A fast food ‘value’ meal now costs $12.  The middle and lower classes are bleeding lifestyle dollars and a report out yesterday reported credit card debt is creeping up, and outright skyrocketing among young adults 20-30 yr olds, with micro credit on the rise.  Couple that with new stringent student loan payment obligations and there’s a lot of people hardly staying afloat.

I don’t know why it popped up on my Tiktok feed, but a video of a young woman just realizing she has been paying on her student loan for 3 years with no progress because the interest rate is 18%.  Why it would be legal to offer a 17 yr old who knows nothing about anything a non-bankruptable loan for college is anyone’s guess?

I pay $17k for health insurance for my son and myself.  Then an $8k deductible.   And all dental and vision is out of pocket.  $25k a year for no help from the insurance company.  4 years is a $100k.   The argument for self-insurance is real. The argument that American life is expensive is real. In NY State, it's always been try that there is no case for staying the same size as a business because the costs of regulation, insurance and what have you is high and always rising, so you need to keep growing just to keep up with the bills. The same is becoming true for America in general. There's little room for running in place - you are either losing ground or gaining ground.

The argument that the US dream is split between the 10% who are prospering and the 90% who aren’t can’t lead anywhere good.  The thing is, if you are in the 10%, you typically are hanging with other 10 percenters, so you can become quite oblivious to the stress coursing through the economic veins of this society.

Our compound in Milford PA.

Planning our yearly sojourn to Costa Rica, with a few days beach front, ...

And a few days up in the hills outside Tamarindo.

Wealth is tied up in a few hands.  Robust stocks are limited to 10 companies or less.  It’s a concentrated mess.  I’ve been feeling a nagging sense of doom for years, not necessarily in the general economy or my business but in the stock market and I may be right one day, but as they say, being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Currently, for the first time in a while, I’m out there buying land.  As many as 7 pieces.  With the team in the office, and the veteran field team, I’m interested in another invest and return cycle, rinse and repeat, and see where that leaves us.  Paying $80k for land I used to buy for $30k, paying $450k in construction costs for houses that used to cost $300k, and selling for Mid-$700’s what used to sell for mid $400’s - it's a difficult mind shift.

Definitely less speculators in the game right now, less folks designing and building homes for sale, and our stuff remains interesting, but my marketing machine has been switched off for so long now it’s hard to gauge exactly what’s going on with our stuff, but what is true is that our resales continue to fly off the shelfs.

Recently, I'll post photos later- 

Eagles Nest

Now Maple Lane Farmhouse

We sold our 3 new ones on Wood Oak.

There’s the Ulster County Farmhouse on Hanna Lane that just went up for sale - need to keep an eye out on that one.

I definitely sold my last two on Tetta Lane too quickly, and probably walked away with $250k less in my pocket, but who could have guessed what the market place would foretell, and I’ve always operated under a ‘one in the hand in better than 2 in the bush’ type of mentality.  It’s proved the right method, at least for me.  Gotta keep that cash moving.  Gotta keep the banks from getting nervous when homes hang around too long.  Gotta keep the self-confidence up which gets dinged when a house doesn’t sell immediately (but that’s always a false alarm since I have plenty of room typically to manuever with my pricing).

I'm finding myself in Fremont a lot, where I did a lot of work when I was just starting out in '03. This farmhouse, which was abandoned even back then, is looking worse for the years, like a lot of us.

I have a team in place that took be a long 27 months to put together.  I ran through 9 people in 3 different positions over 2.5 years, overpaying, getting less than ideal results, lowering my expectations, and slowing the business down to a crawl as I fumbled around for the right cocktail of expense, talent, experience, personality and attitude.  We are a small business, with a small office, and I’m pretty demanding and so are our clients.   The only reason we prospered the way we did over the last 2 years - and it has been investment banker level profits - was due to the fact that I was dialed in and I know my business from the ground up - every nut and screw - and I was daily working ‘in the business’ (as opposed to ‘on the business').   

My first SuCo job was painting this barn - seemed so much bigger back in '03. When I accidentally came across it yesterday as I was scouting a new piece of land, I felt like when I do when I go into an elementary school, where everything is kid sized and a lot smaller than you remember it to be.

Working in the business over the last two years has taught me a lot.  Prior to my long-term project manager departing in 2023, I left a lot of the dailys to other people, so I didn’t know how to do a lot of the office stuff, where to find it, how to sign it, send it, package it, stamp it, scan it, print it, save it, find it, file it. I’ve mastered google drive storage and sharing, have no fear of pdfs and longer, can move across multiple softwares and computers.  The one thing I refuse to do is to learn how to use the large format blueprint printer - I guess that’s my line in the sand - if I can’t delegate the large format printing, then I’ve hit the rock bottom. 

My most successful hires have been ones that need a fair amount of training - have the goods, have the starts of a solid skill set, but need the day in day out push and pull of a small business to hone and develop the skills - in a small business, you can’t hide from your successes and failures - they impact everyone, so it’s a great place to accelerate a skill set.  Plus, at Catskill Farms we have our sticky fingers in a lot of pies so it’s always imperative that employees can jump around and develop a varied and fluid approach to problem solving.

And, my management style - as I manage myself - is an annoying mantra of ‘I see you have that pretty much figured out, so let’s move onto the next thing right away’.  Constantly pushing the skill sets to grow, with no end in sight. There's always a way to get better.

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Took Lucas and 4 friends down to St Petes from Friday morning to Monday morning, sitting in the bright and sunny Tampa airport after just being notified that the shitshow Newark airport air traffic control just delayed us for 30 minutes.  We shall see what that eventually means.

I’ve traveled with one of Lucas’ friends a lot, 2 quite often too, but Lucas +4 was a bit of an experiment with a lot of extra logistical elements - we couldn’t all fit in one car from home to the airport (solution: took two cars), there was no way 5 large young men were staying at my condo with their dirty and wet shit everywhere (solution:rent a room at the Marriott just around the corner for three of them).  They wouldn’t all fit into a regular sized SUV especially when luggage is accounted for (solution:bad ass large oversized Tahoe).

They were all over the place - beach, mall, put dozens of miles or more on rental bikes and scooters, movie theaters, a ton of time on our rooftop pool and jacuzzi and gym.   And watched the new Adam Sandler film Happy Gilmore II.

Out of 4 bag search opportunities going through Pre-Check there and back, I got flagged 3 times - 1, for poker chips I was carrying from PA to FL in hopes of teaching the kids some poker (didn’t happen), 2, for a ham sandwich and banana, and 3, for a candle Lucas asked me to carry.

Like up North, but more, it was hot down here, feeling like 105 mid-day.  Played pickleball Sunday morning at Crescent Park with the 40 or 50 people who show up to play each morning, 7 days a week.  Whack whack whack here the neighbors.  The tennis courts adjacent sit unused.

Florida storms are wild, and last night one blew in that packed rain, cool clouds, thunder and a lot of lightening.  I’m not sure how much stock to put into it since I’ve only seeing some posts on my TikTok, but they say the Florida real estate market is crashing with a perfect Floridian storm of back to work mandates, natural disasters, insurance costs, condo assessments, higher real estate taxes and too much new supply of single family and condo Units.

On the home front, we just finished the Parksville lakefront home.  And when I say finished, I mean wrapped up tight across an array of requirements for an easy landing - certificate of occupancy, utility set ups, bank inspections, paperwork, warranties, walk-throughs and sign-offs.  Our lakefront in North Branch is cruising along and our New Paltz Ranch with views is moving along as well. Unlike a lot of our competitors our shit is always moving forward.  It’s just my nature.

I’m spending a lot time on trying to decipher the best use of my accumulated capital - be in currently invested in longer term rental real estate, or equity markets.   With the 8 un-mortgaged rental homes across 3 states (NY, PA and FL), with the help of CPA John in the office, we are looking at the return on investment ratios on the following fronts - 1, long term rentals, 2, selling and investing the money, 3, selling and holding the mortgages where possible.   Lots of tax ramifications that drive the decision-making - in fact the tax consequences factor as a primary concern/variable when evaluating options - ordinary income, capital gains, current tax brackets vs future brackets (typically lower)- trying to find the magic investment sequencing, and also trying to determine if rental real estate outperforms the stock market, etc.. - all complicated because the last 8 years have been such go go good times for investments of all sorts, it’s hard to remember and plan around past results are not indicative of future results.

Though I am getting more comfortable with the idea the stock market will return 7-10% over time, something I’ve always been suspicious of.

Interestingly, and finally, prices on land in SuCo have stabilized and perhaps even retreated from their highest levels.  And as important, or relatedly I guess, things aren’t selling the minute they hit the marketplace.  This allows us here at Catskill Farms to get a little more serious about ramping up our purchases of land and put up a few more houses.  I feel vindicated, if that’s the right word, for sitting on the sidelines for a bit and watching the dust settle.  While land is about double at times, and many times more, there are at least now opportunities to pick up some parcels where I’m comfortable with the prices - meaning $50’s, 60’s and maybe even 70’s.  For someone buying SuCo land in the $20ks or low $30’s for decades, it takes some getting used to.  Sure, end prices are higher, but so is every single ingredient necessary to build a home.  

Lucas, far right, worn out from hosting all day long.

And of course no trip is satisfactory unless lucas gets a dumb picture of me.

The bubble of 800 migrant bicyclists moving across 400 miles, east to west, of upper NY State, like a caravan of Grateful Dead followers, or Phish, or any group of people who travel from place to place independently, but joined by direction or mission.  The idea that the group is pedal powered, commune camping, facing the unexpected elements together, cooperating, exercising - the whole endeavor caught me off guard in how quickly and completely I was commuted out of my ordinary concerns and priorities.   

When you are camping and pitching tents with 800 people, spread out across only an acre or two in 300+ tents, sharing limited port-johns, showering in semi-trucks with trailers rigged with showers, eating together under a tent in a buffet style, it’s just a very different experience very quickly.

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First, to be out there doing it takes a certain type of person - you have the veterans who return every year for a decade, you have the ones like me that bike frequently but never tried something like this - long distances and overnight, and unaccustomed to camping -, you have the people who shouldn’t be out there - some who power through and some that tap out. Your ass definitely hurts and you seek that meditative rhythm of pedal stroke cadence, breath and speed.

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Many days on this trip, the temps were in the 90’s and more oppressively, climbed throughout the day so dinner time and beyond were the hottest times of the day.  Too many tents for the limited shade trees so typically the tents - set up by others and aligned with militaristic precision - were out in the open, each a little greenhouse hut, starving for a breeze. At night, there were the snorers, the coughers, the farters, the rustlers, the frequent bathroom visitors with the slam of the plastic portojohn doors, the late night talkers, the sounds of tent zippers up and down (but not the music players).

First light, people start rustling, so days are starting at pre-5am, first slowly and then cascading into a movement of people.  The only thing missing was the bugle call.  Sleepy people, unkempt people, slow walking people through the dewy grass, people preparing for breakfast and then 4-6 hours on a bicycle, taking down their tents, packing their gear, fueling up with conversation, coffee and camaraderie under the buffet tent. Making their way to the porto-johns and the water stations activated by a foot pedal. Many cultures don't have the space or the affluence to offer day to day privacy, but we do here in the USA, so to pierce that protective veil of dedicated personal space is jarring.

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One thing I noticed, since I also notice the inverse, was the lack of public noise from phones or devices.  Whereas I can’t even eat pizza in peace anymore without someone listening to their phone on speaker,  here you had nearly a thousand people more or less quietly going about their business.  It seemed anyone attracted to a mass event like this came with an elevated sense of noise propriety.  

I employed (2) 16 yr olds all summer, teaching how to work, how to show up, how to put some coin in their pockets. They did good - it was hot, weedy work but project by project they made their mark. Tomorrow is their last day of the summer, and I'm treating them to a round of golf and bought them Beats headsets as a bonus.

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Lulu knows how to enjoy the grounds, always seeking out new perches, angles and elevations.

It's that time of year. Lucas is vying for the starting QB role, - not just vying for pole position, but then having to keep it, maintain it, earn it week after week.

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I first signed up for the whole 8 day, 375 mile Erie Canal ride across the upper NY region.  Later, coming to my senses, I reduced that to half the ride, or two hundred miles, or from Buffalo and Syracuse.  The full canal riders are still out there, arriving in Albany sometime tomorrow.

This Erie Canal bike ride happens every year, for who knows how many years.  This year had a bit more historical significance because it was the 200 anniversary of the opening of the Albany to Buffalo man-made waterway, the mule and man made ditch that spurred the western expansion of the US, pushing both ideas and commerce westward in a fraction of the time and a fraction of the cost.

The ride itself, organized by NY Parks and Trails, was a well-run affair that was a roving migration of 800 bikers, and 100 staffers, mostly volunteers - sort of Grateful Dead meets bluegrass festival meets religious revival meets military encampment.

The logistics aren’t easy - with 60 miles traveled each day, the encampment, the luggage of the bikers, the pop-up mess tents, porto-johns, truck showers, hundreds of tents - rolling into a school or Elks Lodge or town park, only to pack up and move on the next day.

The challenges of biking that far are varied, and probably rotate each year - this year was the heat, a heat that pressed down as the day wore on so while scorching at 1, continued to its climb to late afternoon, leaving an oppressive blanket late into the early evening.

It’s an interesting crowd - a crowd that has to be comfortable with the variations and unpredictable nature of the weather, rain, logistical screwups - a go with the flow while riding a bike 60 miles a day.

Many people had done it before, many had done it several times.   Not the hardest ride in terms of elevation climbs or leg burn out, but still, sitting in that little seat for 5-8 hours a day is its own form of meditation.  My goal - as a person that spends a fair amount of time on a bike - was to see if I liked a longer, overnight type of thing, and get a handle on how far is too far, how hard was too hard and be able to dial in on trips that fit my biking profile.  I believe that has been achieved - I can now look at a biking tour group’s South Dakota or Amsterdam to Barcelona trip and see if it’s something I could do.

I’m confused at why and how the Cold Play Kiss Cam incident caught on and went so viral.  I get it that it’s one of those ‘by the grace of god go I’, or ‘that’s why you stick to hotel rooms’ type of response, but still, the outlandish pile on by social media, memes and print journalism is hard to square with the actual thing.  

I’m a history buff, and have a fair to above-grade understanding of American History, and feel very comfortable with the mid-19th Century history, say 1850 onwards.  I got the rise and fall of slavery covered in some details, the industrial revolution, the railroad inception and progress from steam to coal, the assassination, the sad chapter of reconstruction, presidential rotation, etc…  But the Erie Canal’s role in all this, the canal’s role in turning NY into the aptly named Empire State, as the canal became the primary lane of commerce in America.

This helps to explain the mystery I never solved of why so many important Americans in the mid-1850’s were living in Auburn, or Syracuse, or Rochester - towns that still exist today but seem very far out of the action - but I would read a book and William Seward would be living mid-state, Susan B Anthony, Harriet Tubman, and even 13 Years a Slave, when he was returned he returned to Mid-State, Upstate - it was literally not the middle of nowhere, it was the center of everywhere, with the Canal creating one of the busiest, vibrant string of wealth that spanned the whole state.

Not just commerce wealth.  The Canal, its riverside banks - pushed ideas westward, pushed religion westward.  The abolitionist movement fermented there, women’s rights, 7th Day Adventists and Brigham Young’s mormons, where the first 5000 copies of Book of Mormon was published and disseminated.   Religious revivals - think O God Where Art Thou - up and down the banks of the countless towns that sprung up - Spencerport, LockPort, Brockport, Fairport, Albany, Rochester, Buffalo.  The original cauldron of stew -immigration, the free market and freedom to worship and travel-  that resulted in a circus and brew of personalities pushing self-reliance and the pursuit of individualism across the Appalachians in mass, for the first time.

The Bike ride was good.  The history lesson was good.  I can now hear the raucous canal life - the mules, the barges, the locks moving cargo against gravity, the preachers and sinners, block after block of saloons and bars - a dirty, frenetic, life edged with the unknown.  A combustible circus of self-determination by whatever means necessary.

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Future blog topics

1. My recent upwork experience with suspected AI fraudster.
2. The Bike ride
3. Always coming home to a shitshow of one sort or another.
4. Vet called Lulu a ‘Senior’.
5. My son’s romance with a graduated Senior.

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