Catskills - Sullivan County - Ulster County Real Estate -- Catskill Farms Journal

Well, The Alps came and went.  We arrived with a gamble that the end of season - literally, the end - would provide sufficient snow cover for a worthwhile ski getaway for me, my 27 yr old nephew and his 30 yr old brother.   From our 4th floor, 3 bedroom ‘penthouse’ a few kilometers up hill from Meribel Center, we could survey the mostly snowless trails in the Meribel Valley.

The Three Valleys (Tre Valles) is the largest ski area in the world, combining 3 resorts/mountains, into one, navigable by crossing the peaks from one to another - Courchevel, Meribel, and Val Thorens.  With parts of Val Thorens sitting at over 3000 kilometers, even late in the season the mountain provides plenty of skiable surface.  From what I read, this April was at 62% of normal snow cover, so while it was still skiable, it was certainly the end of the season with many trails and lifts closed (still plenty open) and a lot of stores and restaurants shut for the season.

The temperatures were into the 40 and 50’s.  I learned a trick about converting Celsius - take the celsius number, double it, and add 30 and that’s approximately the Fahrenheit temp.  Problem is that doesn’t work for negative numbers right - like -2 Celsius is what?  How do you double -2?  I’d have to ask my son, though turns out he’s not in competition for any math awards so it’s hard to see how asking him would help.

The 3 Valleys, just about exactly 2 hours outside of Geneva on the French side, was clear the season was ending.  Without significant snow fall for a month, the wind down, close out efforts of the stores that remained open were phoning it in at best.  The working transients that serve in the Alps in the winter and migrate to the Riveria in the Summer was on the minds of many.  

Then came, pretty much without warning, the largest storm of the year, dropping 3’-6’ of snow throughout the Alps, transforming spring back to winter, and even the large groundhog like marmots seemed like wtf after they burrowed their way up and out of the snow cover.  There was this group of three that hung out in the sun under a lift for the longest while, trying to get their game plan in place.

This is the type of storm that closed down ski resorts, with an end of season lack of staff, lack of supplies, lack of energy.  I guess it was a world-wide story first for the snow and then for the 5 of 5 avalanche risk that closed the resorts the first day post storm, and had the high peaks and valley to valley crossing closed the 2nd day.  In other parts of the Alps, like Zermet, they are still digging out and I’m not sure any skiing was had since there was widespread electrical outages, road closures and even bridge collapses.  But in our isolated valley we were skiing the day after in bright blue skies, warm temps and soft snow.  It just snowed and snowed and snowed.   And then there was a quick window of perfect skiing before the long sunny days turned the new snow into rapidly thinning sticky mush.

I ended up getting a high altitude high alcohol good beer buzz for the first time since April 2023 at an apres ski slope side party that I skied into after an exhilarating day on the slopes.  The sun was too warm, the vibe too good, the beer too strong.    End of season moment.  Tip - it’s hard to ski when intoxicated.  Luckily I didn’t have far to go, and luckily when intoxicated, you don’t care too much about how long it takes or the trouble getting there.

This season the skiing took me to Killington VT, Steamboat Springs CO and the 3 Valleys in the France.   That’s about double what I typically do in a year, and with the runs being so long in France, the total skied must easily exceed my yearly average, and I think the results were starting to show in my abilities.  One nice thing about skiing is that you build from year to year, like riding a bike or something similar, not like golf where any pause results in immediate regression.  I guess otherwise skiing really wouldn’t be a thing for most people since they don’t go a whole lot - a few times a year.

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Well, that wraps up a lot of travel over the last 6 months, starting with Costa Rica in November, St Petes over New Years, Killington, Steamboat and now France.  And France last June, and Costa Rica last April.  And the Vanderbilt Mansion in Asheville NC last Christmas.  Dozen trips to NYC, one to Martha’s Vineyard, and that’s without really even thinking about it too hard.

Back on the home front, the new team crushed it and we are calibrated exactly right in talent and workload to have a terrific year from a few different vantages.  I’m hoping the availability of land starts to straighten out because while it was a good thing to force me to personally slow it down, I do need access to land to keep the ship moving, even at slower speeds.   I feel like I’m on the tip of the bow, looking out over the ocean, trying to spot the wave to ride or avoid.

I spent some time on the free of business operational details and it got me thinking about what a crazy trip the last 5 years has been, and that I sailed through quite the storm, and anyone along for the ride - employee, client, family - benefited from my efforts, sometimes in the most extreme and personal fashion.  That’s the joy of small business - you can make an impact on lives, and with building shelter in particular, you really can make a long and lasting impact.  My homes will be here a lot longer than I will be.

I watched the Bob Dylan movie on the way to France and Hangover 1 on the way home.

My nephew and I binged White Lotus, Season 3 on our off days, and that was fun. I definitely had a crush on Mook until I realized how famous and hot she is and totally out of my league (for now).

I just read an interesting Wall Street Journal article eviscerating Prez Trump in the smartest way on really every front. And then you page over to Fox News and find a universe of news and perspective positioning him as a tough effective leader.  These two voices are owned by the same conglomerate, so to reconcile their goals is impossible.  I guess you could say Murdoch wants it both ways - he wants to be on the record as evaluating the man correctly (WSJ) and also wants to continue his profitable propaganda machine (Fox News and related personalities).  The recent news about Rupert Murdoch - (other than his 5th marriage) - was he was trying to change up his irrevocable trust and reduce the influence and ownership shares of some of this children.

Why this was interesting is because I’m a student of trusts, having a living trust myself where all my assets live (other than high liability autos).  Trusts are common tools/vehicles, and you don’t need to be uber-wealthy to benefit from them.  Trusts are helpful in organizing assets and instructing heirs on what, when and how you’d like your estate administered after you head off to the bright light, and it can be done in more detail than a will, and also keeps the details of the details out of the courts and the public record.  

A living trust is controlled by the person who owns the trust during their living years, and can be changed, amended, altered etc… as often and as drastically as events dictate - new wife, new child, new business, new rules of money distribution.  A living trust doesn’t really come with any inherent estate or tax benefits.  It’s an organization tool; a tool to protect assets.

An irrevocable trust, however, is just the opposite, and comes with a host of tax and estate benefits, with one serious caveat: you literally give up control of any asset the trust holds.  So Murdoch has his Fox and related entities in an irrevocable trust, and has assigned inheritance details to his children and others in this trust, and, by the very nature of the irrevocable trust, he doesn’t have the ability or authority to change it, in exchange for whatever benefits this type of trust offers.

He’s engaged in a legal process attempting to open the trust up for him to change the details and structure of it, and is being opposed by several of his children.  There are a few very esoteric ways you allowed to get back into the machinery of an irrevocable trust, and I think one of them is if the business or asset is a real threat of being materially devalued and the only person with the skill set to preserve it is the person who gave the keys away - or perhaps the argument goes that the current structure poses substantial and real risk of devaluing the value of the asset. 

So Murdoch was in court arguing the current structure, that all his children (not sure how many there are but there are at least 3 primary) receive equal shares, is a threat to Fox News because at least two of this children have shown a disinclination to pursue his news programming that has set the US on a course of disintegration, and that their influence, and moderation of Fox programming threatens its very survival and value.   It’s actually a really interesting and possible correct view of things - the court turned him down, and he wasn’t allowed to reopen the Trust but that is more a comment on how iron-clad these trusts can be, not on his perceptive insights on the trajectory of Fox News if made more moderate by his off-spring.  Murdoch is 95 years old, so this change of direction may be closer than it seems, which would be good for US, but only open the way for some other organization (NewsMax) to fill the propaganda void.

I’m in Meribel, with my wingman Eli.  Day 4.  We are still waiting on his luggage, which was never really lost in the technical way since we and United have always been able to see where it was (first in Newark, then in Geneva, then in the delivery company’s hands), we just don’t have it yet.  And considering we are skiing, there’s a lot more than toiletries than we need in that bag.  So that’s been a bit stressful, mostly because the information we’ve been given (after long wait times) has been wrong, or misleading.  In the end, the correct information and guidance and expectation-setting seems quite clear - ‘we have your bag, and you expect it within 48-72 hours, and you can’t track it in the meantime, and we will call you 90 minutes before it arrives so don’t go anywhere!”)

So Saturday, we cooled it in the flashy condo with Alp views, and binged watched 6 episodes of The White Lotus waiting for the luggage, but by Sunday we needed to go to the slopes, and so we then binged bought at a slope side French alps ski store for a ski jacket, ski bibs, helmet, googles, long underwear, etc….  And for you non-skiers, ski shits expensive, and buying ski ship slope side in a fancy ski resort town is about the most expensive way to buy, so 1800 EU later, Eli my nephew was looking about as good as he is ever going to look in some new ski stuff.  Rumor has it United will reimburse us for a lot of this (in Europe for some reason the limit is 1400 EU while everywhere else it’s higher), so we will see.  We literally are hours away from a big town, and really didn’t have the luxury of time, so there wasn’t a lot of bargain shopping options.  From what I’ve been reading, it seems quite possible we will be reimbursed if we follow the process and keep our receipts, which we have been doing.  A shorter ski trip - like the ones I take in the States - would have been a lot more disrupted by this type of lost baggage.   Seems like the lesson here is pack a carry on, always, with the trips essentials.

We finished Season 3 of The White Lotus, and enjoyed it thoroughly.  Lots, if not all, of the story lines tied up nicely and satisfactorily at the conclusion. I think everyone is relieved Lochlan was revived and survived the poisoning.  I think the Schwartzenegger kid did a great job and was perfectly cast, though you can’t help but assume the benefits of having that name on the cast wasn’t lost on the producer.

It’s Monday morning in the Alps and I’m drinking a sacrilegious cup of instant coffee.  The season is a week away from being over, so it’s an interesting time to be here, with the ski shops embarked on a campaign of boot cleaning, ski maintenance and closed for longer lunch times (12:30-3:30!).  Which reminds me of the final kick in the cojenes lost luggage part of the story : we finally get the call yesterday that they want to deliver the luggage and they will be arriving in an hour and a half.  This is a huge ski place with 3 valleys and mountains connected so weren’t going to be able to get back in an hour so we call the ski shop next door and ask if they will accept the luggage, and they say sure - however, the luggage is set to arrive at 1, and they close FOR 3 HOURS FOR LUNCH EVERYDAY.  OMG, the French, gotta love them.

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Ouch, careful what you wish for, no?  I just was talking in the last post that we need a good old-fashioned correction to make the stock market more investable, and wallah, a cool 10% decline in a couple of days, with more to come most likely.  The market was at 38,000 just 1 year ago so to dip past that point quickly seems quite in the realm of possibility.

The tariffs are going to be tricky for construction.  According to an article I just read, construction materials sit at 41% higher than they did in February 2020, which seems about right to me.   There is no doubt prices will be impacted, but how and when is another story.  That uncertainty will definitely impact demand for construction services, renovations and new builds.   Shit's expensive.

I guess the goal could be seen as ‘leveling the playing field’, and through brute force forcing other countries to eliminate their tariffs on us.  I don’t think there is anyone with a brain that thinks jobs for making T-Shirts and Iphones are coming to America anytime soon.  The lack of an articulable strategy makes things worse.

If most of America thought high prices and inflation was a big concern, you have to wonder what they are going to think when they are taking it on the income side with loss of investment value and taking it on the expense side with all prices going up, a lot.

People are freaking.  You have a whole set of finance guys who have ridden a stock market wave from 17,000 to 44,000 in 6 years.  They are in no way built for what’s coming their way.

The only question will be how much leverage (or borrowed money) is in the system, so as prices decline, margin calls and forced selling accelerates.  You never know who is wearing pants until the tide goes out they say.

Even the Covid era didn’t have the width of cost increase impacts this will have.

Just another season in the business life.  My guess is there are some opportunities coming for those with some dry powder.  But panic is in the air, as people have chased returns, and ignored the lack of diversification even in the big ETFs as the Mag 7 exploded in value.  I’m ready to buy into this down turn, but you don’t want to be trying to catch a falling knife so it’s hard to know when to dip back in.  If nothing else, maybe this will convince some folks who should have moved out of equities long ago based on their age to finally wake up and de-risk, albeit 18% less wealthy than 2 weeks ago.

I was lightly bummed, a low simmering wave of regret, that I sold last two Ashokan homes at the first offers that came through in January, since the market has only heated up since then, with inventory decreasing to stressed levels.  I’m sure I could have gotten more.  But then something like the last two weeks ago, and it reminds me of why I’ve survived in this business for 25 years - I take deals when they come my way.  I find a way to do the deal, I monetize and move on.  So instead of sweating it out trying to close a deal or find a deal, I’m sitting on the cash waiting for an opportunity to announce itself.  One in the hand is worth two in the bush type of thing - I definitely subscribe to that line of thinking.

Getting ready to hit the les tres valles (the 3 valleys) in the French Alps, 3 hrs south of Geneva, with my wingman nephew and his older brother.  So I like to fly in style so was excited to take a Swiss Air business class flight across the seas but here this morning when I checked, double checked and then checked again my flight, I was confused why I got a ‘select your meal’ email from United since I wasn’t flying United.  Turns out, even though I booked a Swiss Air ticket, got a Swiss Air flight number and all things on the ticket said Swiss Air, I’m actually flying United with United staff, planes, etc…. Super weird, this ‘cross marketing’ partnership where you book with one airline and end up on another.  That might be cool if you are flying Newark to Tampa, but a long haul business class flight is part of the fun.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I”m sure United Polaris will be fine, but I’m tired of Americans and I’m sure the Swiss would have been thinner and more pleasant.  I understand this is a first world problem to the extreme since United Polaris is pretty kickass, but still, what a bait and switch - I went back and investigated a lot of the emails, confirmations, etc.. and have yet to see the smoking gun that would have made this switcheroo clear. Even when I google the flight number, you have to have eagle eyes to see this ‘operated by’ tradeoff.  At least it wasn’t American!!! (I know, that’s mean).  I guess this might be old news to some people, but not to me.

So I finally put humpty dumpty back together again after 2 years of effort, and then a world-wide tariff calamity trade war happens.  Just another day at the office where you start to expect the unexpected and definitely start to get the idea that smooth sailing just really isn’t in the cards.  It could be a real estate crash (2009), could be Covid, could be the worst client-people you hope never interact with again, could be a health issue of an important team member (or a member of their family).  Some shit show always forming in the distance making its way to my sunny day.

I should’ve mentioned with the Lexus purchase that even though I’m a thoughtful financially literate person, I drove like the worst deal possible on this car.  Just got caught up in the moment, and the car sales process is just really designed to leave you feeling used up - especially on a lease, where understanding what the actual cost is nearly impossible.

I have no idea why I’m leasing, since I’m not paying a $1000 a month only to return it after 3 years, plus I’m sure I’ll blow through the mileage limits without a doubt making a turn-in more or less impossible except at great cost.  All in all, I could afford it so I did it, and all my pricing discipline I practice all day long just flew out the proverbial window.

But two things I learned over the last two weeks of owning it - 1, love the car and definitely made the right choice among the contenders and 2, the 36 mile plug in electric range is cool.

In NYC as we speak, and just bought my first pair of $200+ jeans.  I didn’t mean to, but I went past a jeans store, and tried some on and they felt pretty good and then realized the price which wasn’t $500 but wasn’t $45 either.  I haven’t bought a pair of jeans in a long while but was sort of forced to since Lucas seems to be borrowing and not returning items from my wardrobe, so I’m not sure what the going price for a good pair is (I guess depends on how you define ‘good’ - brand, material, value, etc…).  They’ve come a long way since I last bought a pair - with stretchy light-weight material.

Can't say this is our best father-son photo on the tarmac at Haydan Airport, the nearest airport to Steamboat Springs, and a straight shot from Newark.

New road/driveway going in for a Big Barn on a lake in North Branch.

New Ranch in New Paltz, but we had to demo a mid-sized shack first.

We got a bunch of houses coming up - a Ranch in New Paltz, a big barn in North Branch, another big Barn in Kerhonkson and continuing at warp speed building the farmhouse in Parksville NY.

Interestingly, I spent the last year slowing the ship down to a crawl or stop.  Not easy to stop a barge or boat or locomotive since what’s in motion tends to stay in motion, and from a business standpoint, if you do come to a near stop, to get back up and running again takes time and cash flow/cash reserves.  But I did bring it to a halt, after 24 years of finishing and starting overlaps, sometimes with 25 houses in some stage of construction or pre-construction.  And by bringing it to a halt, I could realistically recalibrate since you can’t really make the best decisions when your needs are now - you don’t have the mental, strategic, operational bandwidth to get it done.  For the past 2 years I was working IN the business, instead of ON the business.  Had no choice, but 2 years later I’m exactly where I should be.  Powder dry, excellent staff, pruning of deadwood, clear mind, great team of subcontractors and vendors, and a little bit more purchasing and authority power since the economy is definitely slowing.

Part of the Museum of Natural History.

All in all, entering the Spring of 2025 poised for great things (defined as stability, life/work balance and fully funded profit share and retirement contributions for the team).

The media’s coverage of the stock market gyrations recently has been a degree of hyperbole usually reserved for their weather coverage and holiday airport crowd projections.  The market going up 200 points isn’t ‘soaring’ or doing down 600 a ‘crash’.  Everyday some over the top headline and not just from one source uniformly from NYTimes to Fox to Barrons to Investor Daily.  I mean considering all the proposed economic plans coming out of the Trump Admin, the market going down 7-10% after a bull run of 8 years is hardly unexpected.  The only thing is shows is how nervous investors really are generally and how long they have been willing to circle the chairs hoping there is one available when the correction comes.  I’m dying for a good 20% sell off so I can get in at more comfortable levels and we could get rid of some of the dry kindling on the forest floor (overvalued stocks) which will make any blaze burn hotter (correction) creating a healthier and more sustainable investment environment.  I’m just happy a good portion of my dough is in other things that than the market since I find the stock market a real mind f%4k in terms of proportionality when it comes to evaluating wins, losses, risk and reward.  I mean, I’m not going around valuing my real estate holdings weekly and feeling good/bad about them.

I’m in the city, and took a long walk which I like to do.  A deceivingly chilly day.  Walked by the Dakota, which reminded me of the James Paterson book on John Lennon (singer) and David Chapman (assassin) I read over the winter.  Paterson, the well known writer of thrillers, wrote a book that went back and forth between the paths of the two men leading up to the murder on the door steps of the Dakota as Yoko Ono looked on.  Then walked through Strawberry Fields in Central Park and did a big loop in the Upper West Side.