Water, flooding
The flooding in western North Carolina and Tennessee is frightening. With no warning 16”-24” of rain fell onto a mountainous region crisscrossed with small streams and rivers, turning meandering waterways into raging monsters. I mean, we have that all over my working and living territory - lazy little streams that barely flow sometimes. If something like this happens again, somewhere else, people will start to peer off their decks at those little streams with a feeling of unease. If this is climate change - random, unpredictable storm events that aren’t even considered a possibility in civil engineering planning processes, that will become disorienting very quickly.
This catastrophic rain event puts my mind to work on a few fronts. I list them first, so I don’t forget: insurance, familiarity, construction, consumption of news.
In some ways, we all are the proverbial frog in the boiling water. The water is getting hotter, the symptoms and consequences of a changing climate - more disasters, higher costs to rebuild, uninsurable areas, less predictability, a human nature sense that it won’t ‘happen here, to me’.
I don’t watch any network or cable news. As a news junkie - or a reformed one, as I had a hard time to continuing to read the news as propaganda that became ever present recently - I read my news, or catch it on TikTok, and both approaches are vastly different than watching it on one of the cable news shows. I have a friend who gets her news only from blips on the TV and while taking zero away from her, her opinion and perspective can be summed up whatever is being shown and repeated on the TV. Tik Tok actually has a pretty interesting way of delivering the news, with different sources, different voices, none of them predictable, many times personal accounts, many times contradictory, many times with greater length, meaning more closely paralleling the actual event duration rather than saturation coverage and then moving on. The stuff broadcasting through TikTok from NC or St. Petes is truly up close and personal, without the distracting political goals.
I’m familiar with St Pete’s, purchasing a pretty fabulous top floor condo in a best in class building in DownTown St Pete’s, which has experienced a surge in downtown condo construction. I’ve been waiting since spring of 2021 for it, having signed up for it prior to construction. This building is 30’ above sea level a mile or so from the nearest body of water so other than psychologically and some debris cleanup, unaffected by a storm that left its world class beaches in disarray. The rebuilding of the sandy beaches effort was turned on its head when all that new sand was pushed inland, and now the streets and houses a block or two from the ocean are covered with the tiny sand molecules. In NC, it’s all mud. I experienced a flood event in 2021 in Phoenixville PA where I own 4 single family residential rentals, and one thing we didn’t have for whatever reason was residue mud. Just water that rose, flooded us, and then went away. The mud, now that’s a different cleanup story altogether.
I’m also familiar with Ashville, specifically the Biltmore Village and Manor, the largest home in America built by the grandson of the Commodore back in 1890. Climate disasters are the true equalizers, since neither wealth nor privilege protects against Mother Nature, or even more true, since wealth likes water, perhaps the upper classes are even more at risk here, over time.
It was always clear that insurability of homes in certain areas was going to bring about a ‘come to jesus’ moment in confronting climate change, because while politicians can posture, and us individuals can hide from it, the science and actuarial tables of insurance are solely in the business of risk management, and the risks were/are increasing, as are the flow through insurance problems of insurance companies pulling out of areas or raising premiums to shocking levels in those areas.
What is now apparent is that insurance companies can never hedge their risks enough by solely concentrating on at-risk areas and that’s what we are seeing across the board - that all insurance is getting more expensive, particularly homeowner policies. What used to be $800 or $1200 or $1600 is now $3800, especially in areas not close to fire stations or fire hydrants, ie, rural homes. So the insurance companies are, in order to stay financially solvent, spreading the pain to all their policy holders. Same is true with car insurance - everything is more expensive to fix - cars, homes, boats - and that results in higher premiums across the board. (caveat - some of this also, for me, is that I'm buying nicer things, and haven't adjusted my 'insurance mindset' to the obviousness that nicer things cost more to insure - a Mercedes is more expensive to insure/fix than a 1998 Rav 4, a 2008 Mariner, or a Jeep Grand Cherokee).
So in some ways, insurance costs and/or the inability to actually even get insurance, is the proverbial canary in the coal mine, and that bird is experiencing difficulties. We had a homeowner who had a wood-stove, installed in new construction 10 years ago, which was flagged for improper installation, with a demand for installation records and proof of professional install. That’s one hard exercise for a new homeowner trying to trace the installation back through 1 homeowner, it’s another when the wood stove was installed in 1952 and the same demand is made.
What we are seeing is this new-found seriousness on the part of insurance companies to reduce their risks. And also making payouts a lot more difficult.
I’m pretty careful about where I build. But if we start to see random flooding after intense rain where every stream is a potential problem, that’s a gigantic expansion of risk from where we currently are, with oceanfront and documented flood plains at most risk. I mean, if the government starts to change flood plain maps as flooding becomes more pronounced, and one day you wake up and your home is now rated as flood prone, that is big deal for the homeowner and the inherent investment in the home, since flood plain/prone homes are worth less.
Anyways, what has happened to the those communities, communities I have visited and know well, leaves me with a disorienting sadness for those folks who were just doing their thing, at 2000 ft above sea level, and then it was gone.
Homes being built, and meandering thoughts
Lucas has a constant stream of high school peers sleeping over. Plenty of space, lack of parental helicopting, close to town and close to school make it a go-to stop for those with an invite. After homecoming, we had 16 kids sleep over. Everywhere I went the morning after there was a kid - indoors, outdoors. People with previous sleep over experience got the inside track on the most comfortable spaces, and probably more importantly, zeroed in on blankets and the like.
Just waiting on the couch to arrive - I didn't realize it when I ordered/designed it it was going to take 4 months to arrive. Love the new Japanese floor chairs with adjustable seating positions.
Prepped breakfast of eggs and pancakes and milk for pre-game meal against Abbington this afternoon.
Packed a big lunch for them since they will be gone all day. I like flexing the Dad as Mom thing - I think I do it pretty well.
Football season is off and running and Lucas Petersheim made his varsity debut against Wallenpaupack when our team - Delaware Valley Warriors - took a big lead. Popped his varsity cherry. He was pretty excited.
We have one more sale to finish this year, a Barn home on nearly 5 acres just outside Narrowsburg. In maybe a first for us in Sullivan County, this family moved their life upstate and enrolled their kids in the local rural high school. We seen that a few times in Ulster, but not as much in Sullivan. This 3500 sq ft beauty is turning out to fit the needs of a wide-range of families - the first floor primary bed/bath ensuite is a good look.
We have 4 homes we are completing that aren’t being actively marketed but will be shortly. Enough sales for one year, and with a tax bill that is hovering around $750,000 coming due shortly from 2024 earned income. Even though we aren’t the most expensive home supplier in the counties we work, and I feel we offer a ton of value, because at heart we earned our stripes during a much more difficult upstate economic environment, so learned to be uber-efficient just to survive. So, during pre-covid times, this ability helped us stick around for 17 years, and during and post covid times, it allowed us tackle more business, and expand our profits per house - which after 20 years of ekkking by, was well earned.
The thing about the sunk cost thing, and the sunk cost fallacy, is even if you don't fall into the fallacy and exacerbate a costly situation, extricating yourself - even if it's the right move, stings. It's not as if doing the right thing - properly evaluating risk vs return - eliminates the pain of the sting. But I guess just like a bee sting, it lessens and dissipates before you know it, whereas staying in the fight prolongs the resolution and possibly the result is a long felt amputation.
As we slow down, purposely, some very neat opportunities have been coming our way in which I have the time to entertain fully, which is a big switch from moving along from one to the next with no time to monetize or even consult on post-build projects. And we are just getting started on a 5 lot subdivision in Kerhonkson.
The garage door went in at my house, so that's all finished for now.
Did a ton of weeding Friday, then closed down the pool on Saturday.
This is definitely bear poop on one of our driveways. The nerve - raid our dumpsters, poop on our driveway. Hard to scale it in the picture but it's about the size of a dinner plate and 2" + thick.
All in all, it's a period of decompression after nearly 3.5 yrs of leaving it all on the field, 24/7. Quite the run.
Ranch 70 Leaves the Building - SOLD
Another week, another house sale. Bringing these projects to conclusion with surgical precision isn't easy, and we've spent a lot of time getting a program done that is both efficient, and effective. Considering we nearly always go into so random piece of woods and build a home, the challenges are endless, variable, and unpredictable. The project in Olivebridge - that 9 home project 2.5 years in the making - has no cell service, and to get it, means traveling at least 5 miles. Now that some of the homes are connected to the street and the internet, we've been able to wi-fi call, but that's still a bit of a logistical juggle. But challenge that come, is only a barnstorming brainstorm idea away.
Ranch 70 is the right home for the right property. The Owners spent part of the build climbing Mount Everest or something similarly challenging, and then used the rest of their time to design and collaborate on a lot of good looking fun choices in the home, from appliances, to paints, to wall coverings kitchens and tile. Not to mention lighting and plumbing.
I'm more or less an expert with pairing the right homes with the right land at this point, and more than that, I'm skilled at making sure the house is put on the right spot on the land. Hard to fake. Get it wrong and you get stuck with a spec house till you lower the price far past the pain point of losing money. And losing money after spending a year on a project is enough of a spanking to keep you from trying again.
This home is on just under 5 acres, on Lot 9, of a 9 lot subdivision just down for Tetta General Store which was recently passed down from grandparents to Primo, the grandson, who did amazing things reinventing the general store into something modern and fun.
Doing one of my favorite things today and that's taking a new survey with some landmarks such as stone walls, large oaks, paths that the surveyor marks on the plans, daydreaming and strategizing about driveways, elevations, houses, neighbors, internet, and property lines.
Problem with small business, or any business, is it's always a rubiks cube of problems to solve, and issues to confront, and conversations to be had, and ... lessons to be learned. Has anyone learned more lessons than me on a daily basis for 25 years? Probably not. Lessons about what to pursue, and what to let be. Lessons about when to engage and when to retreat. Lessons about who to trust and who to verify. Lessons about how to lose gracefully and how to win and 'let them up easy', as A. Lincoln instructed his military staff when dealing with the rebels.
My dog Lulu would never forgive me if I did these woods explorations without her, so though she's unaware of the excitement in her near future, soon she will be rewarded for being such a good dog with an hour or two in the woods.
Farm 75 Leaves the Building - SOLD
Ranches have been all the rage, and many times when I go to build something different we get a client or two who pass because they 'love the Ranch'. But as a builder of a diverse portfolio, we like to keep it fresh. In the recent project in Olivebridge in Ulster County, we did 3 Barns, 2 Farmhouses and 4 Ranches. We sold the last Ranch today and the last Farmhouse last week. I have two homes left up there, and we are going to sell them as finished projects ready to move in.
The American Four Square is a very recognizable home to anyone who loves quintessential American architecture. You see them in a lot of small towns, you see them in the Sear's turn of the century catalogue, you see them in Leave it to Beaver, Its a Wonderful Life, and other shows where American values hold sway. Like a lot of our farmhouses, they benefit from a floor plan and construction efficiency because of the floor plans, where the 2nd floor takes advantage of the foundation the same way as the first floor. Meaning, many don't have the vaulted ceilings which require a foundation and a roof line but don't give you any more space. I'm not throwing shade at vaulted room - we build them all the time, but looked at through a sq ft of floor plan size, it's takes a bigger shell to achieve the same square footage when you play around with 2nd height open areas.
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This home weighs in at around 3000 sq ft. Full bath in ground floor, and 2 on 2nd floor. We built this around the corner (figuratively not literally) maybe 8 years ago, and it was fun to reinvent it again with the new homeowners, who jumped on board pretty early - don't remember exactly when, and had a hand in the whole design scheme from tile to plumbing and lighting fixtures to paints, stains, counters and kitchens.
