More about Africa (and some house stuff)
Houses -
I truly put so many deals together that I don't even keep count anymore - or more accurately, it's just all part of my daily routine that there is no high five moment. In just the past 45 days, I've put together about $5m of deals, very diversified with the narrow lane we work - 2 houses that we are building on other people's land, a house nearly finished (Fremont/North Branch), and house just starting (North Branch), and a house that is finished (Narrowsburg). The deals come together so seamlessly between my skills, my attorneys efforts on our behalf that I have to be careful not to overbook and leave Amanda once again on the hook for more homes than she can reasonably manage and design.
Prices and volume in the real estate market appears to remain strong for good homes. It is correcting some in terms of what people are willing to pay, but that's a good thing and we welcome the new price points where interest remains robust.
Africa -
We've all mostly seen Out of Africa, but I read the book while traveling there, and if you go in looking for a mirror of the movie, you will be disappointed - the movie seems to have used the 'creative license' to the full extent in changing facts, timelines, events, etc...
If you read it on its own, as a meditation of life, Africa, life in Africa, loss, celebration, appreciation and gratitude, then it is worthy indeed. The tone and pace and style reminds of Verilyn Klenkenberg, a columnist for the NYTimes for years and author of The Rural Life.
Highly recommend both. When the writing of a piece captures the pace of the story or environment, then that is valuable. For instance, Isak Dinesen, the Danish baroness who wrote Out of Africa, takes her time with her book, lets it meander and lose its path, a lot like the people of Africa at the time lived their lives - not in a future target ambition of some sort, but a live in the present ability lost to most westerners.
Why Zebras weren't domesticated (and other useless information)
Zebra
It didn’t take long in Africa to be confronted with a lot of questions as we toured the cities and bush. One that I asked myself, seeing all the zebras, but seeing none put to work like the donkey, the horse, the oxen. I guess the same could be asked of the water buffalo, though that seems easier to answer since its closest North American relative is always undomesticated, unlike the horse.
So I started asking around, when you read and see all the human labors and efforts that could have been aided and assisted by a strong animal - why not the zebra?
So I didn’t get very far with human inquiry, so I delved into that all-knowing source of information - Google.
Turns out, the zebra is too jumpy, too ornery, too high strung, too ‘mean’, too stuck in its ways to domesticate. After living its entire history in the African Savanah where quick predators lie in the tall grass, the zebra’s fight or flight instinct is so fine tuned, is tightly wound, that a few impatient attempts from the English colonists had no chance to overcome and supersede the hair-trigger response of a zebra to stress.
“To be domesticated, animals must meet certain criteria. For example, they must have a good disposition and should not panic under pressure. Zebras' unpredictable nature and tendency to attack preclude them from being good candidates for domestication.” (Google result).
From Science Alert -
All equids are herbivorous prey species with a well-developed "flight or fight" response. But to survive in an environment where there is an abundance of large predators including lions, cheetahs and hyenas, the zebra evolved into a particularly alert, responsive animal that flees in the face of danger but also possesses a powerful response if captured.
The kick of a zebra can break a lion’s jaw. They can be savage biters and possess a 'ducking' reflex that helps them avoid being caught by lasso. Familiarity with human hunter-gatherers may also have fostered a strong avoidance response in the zebra.
All of this means that zebra are not really "people friendly" and as a species they do not fit the criteria for domestication.
According to the English explorer and polymath Francis Galton (a relative of Charles Darwin), these requirements include displaying a desire for comfort, being easy to tend, being useful and showing a fondness for man.
Galton uses the zebra as an example of an unmanageable species, stating that the Dutch Boers repeatedly tried to break zebra to harness. Although they had some success, the wild, mulish nature of the animals would frequently break out and thwart their efforts.
Although it appears possible to tame individual zebra, this species was not a good candidate for domestication. In addition to the intractable nature of the zebra and its strong survival instinct, the fact that this species is 'lion fodder' may also have made them appear less attractive 'partners' to early humans."
So, the moral of the story is some things just can't be tamed - I could have told anyone who was listening that was the case from my hiring attempts over the last 20 years.
Recession (and sold Ranch 56 in Saugerties)
Recession (and sold Ranch 56 in Saugerties)
I still have some stuff to write about re the travel adventure but first I want to write about all the recession talk going around.
So weird, just 2 months ago we sailing along and now all anyone can write about is about the looming recession which may already be here.
I remember way back reading an article in the Financial Times that studied the correlation between the frequency of the word ‘recession’ used in journalism and the news (not necessarily the same thing) and the likelihood of a country going into recession.
Seriously, if the news wouldn’t be shouting it, or say you were in say Africa and didn’t have access to news, there is nothing in the day to day that would give you any hint of a recession.
I know in my business, there is zero indication that anything has changed. I nary a colleague in any industry reports anything other than busy busy can’t return all the calls environment.
Sure, interest rates are up, prices are up, but wages are up and employment is full. And there is so much money out there, from god knows where I haven’t a clue.
We just put another $3m in contract in the last 30 days, which continues a winning streak that started in Mid-2020. A lot of this is covid related but since our sales to completion cycle takes 8+ months, we are still just beginning to monetize what most in the real estate industry long ago pocketed. In fact, getting a little rocky out for the real estate pros who were printing money just a year ago - low inventory, pickier buyers, and rising rates.
Ranch 56 on Rivka Road in Saugerties sold today - this was a project I was hesitantly buying in early 2020, then really foot-dragged when Covid hit, then the 16 lot purchase was the best thing that ever happened to me (this is hyperbole but ranks up there for sure).
16 affordable building lots in the prime-est markets in literally the whole nation. Bought just before they would have doubled or tripled in value and would have had interest out the from investors, speculators and families. When I made the commitment, I was certain 2020 was going to be a tough year for real estate and we had 4 or 5 homes under 900 sq ft going up.
Then Covid hit and I occupied my historically profitable contrarian position and thought all was over, and things were going to tougher, making my purchase of these lots all the more the bitter pill to swallow. Then it turned out I was wrong - Covid propelled real estate as we all now know, and I was holding gold on my balance sheets with every piece of property I owned.
The same scenario with the Crest in North Branch NY in SuCo (Sullivan county for you none hipsters not mentioning any names Eric Goldstein (square)) - some big league world-wide property owners who owned 25 lots in North Branch, decided to get this money losing decade old development off their books, right onto my books.
Seems easy in retrospect, but it was certainly a combination of being in the game, luck, and old fashioned risk-taking, good timing - luckily being in the market for land just prior- and of course I always have my bank - Jeff Bank - there to finance my decisions and choices.
Ranch 56 is a beaut.
https://www.thecatskillfarms.com/homes/saugerties-real-estate-ranch-56
These houses sold for $510k in 2019 and before. This one just sold for $710k. You do that a dozen or more times a year and you really start to have something to show for your efforts.
(this is the way it formatted when posted from Notes, and I'm just going through it)
United Arab Emirates
UAE - Dubai
Glad I read up on this country since its real color and personality is subtle. The Emirates is formed from 7 kingdoms sometime in the last 100 years, and is only swimming in its oil wealth since the mid-1950’s. It’s stewardship and investment of those oil monies is impressive and in direct contrast of what you hear about African countries and their squandering of their mineral wealth. It’s an odd and interesting study in contrasts - both areas colonialized by the West, hard-earned processes of independence, but two very different outcomes.
The Emirates is considered the safest city in the world to walk around at night. Due to the invisible but pervasive invisible hand of surveillance and harsh, unmerciful punishment that includes a lot of floggings. People obey the law, and stay out of trouble - it was only just a couple of years ago that alcohol was permitted even among Westerners. Incorporating Sharia law, a body of religious law, is based on the precepts of Islam (taken directly from wiki)and the sacred scriptures.
Floggings and lashings are common, for kissing in public if not married, verbal abuse even on social media, alcohol consumption if you are a muslim, etc…. It’s safe to assume all communications are being monitored and most actions filmed. It feels in some soft way like a well run household, where everyone knows the rules and the punishments are swift. Stoning is also an option they make use of from time to time. Homosexuality is a capital offense and sodomy can be punished with imprisonment of 14 years. At least unmarried couples can live together and drink alcohol - newly allowed since 2020.
The Wikipedia entry details the following - emirates only make up 15% of the population. Indians, from the subcontinent make up 30%, and it’s only a 3.5 hr plane ride from New Delhi. Expats and migrant labor for the hospitality and construction industries make up 70% of the population to serve the other 20%. Its economy is of the most diversified in the Gulf.
The Atlantis, where we are staying, is a $3b hotel finished in 2007, themed after the lost city of Atlantis. 1600 rooms, and the largest water park in the world. Set on the man-made Palms of sand dredged, blown, tamped to created a whole new area of Dubai. I’ve stayed in some nice hotels, some that claimed 3 or 4 or 5 stars, but here, the opulence is in every detail of architecture and service. In some ways, the service is so well done, the training so precise and its execution so consistent, you feel the same laws and codes of behavior carry thru throughout the hotel, that a vein of fear, subtle and nuanced, codify the efforts of individuals. Let’s just say you could get used to this, and it makes a lot of other hotels that stake a claim to good service look poorly executed in comparison.
https://www.atlantis.com/dubai. (Take a look, it’s cool).
Gigantic aquarium that anchors the whole hotel around fish and water (note the pun with ‘anchors’The waterpark is insane.
The water park is insane. World's largest they claim.
There are several things to note - mostly about the heat. The ocean is literally like 95 degrees. Not refreshing, so the 6 pools around the place help a great deal. It’s summer here, and temps are averaging 100 degrees during the day, and 95 at night. You can’t walk barefoot without burning the bottoms of your feets
On the Catskills side of things, the team did good and I’m looking forward to getting back and leading from the front - first man over the hill type of thing. We got a ton of stuff going on and there is really nothing that happen right now that would change the fact that we are a financially stable company, regardless of what macro recessionary winds are blowing this way. We have at least 6 houses under contract that we are working on, and 3 independent projects where we are being paid to build on of our homes on land purchased by the homeowner - 1 of them is a client that bought our very first or 2nd home in Ulster County back in 2011 or 2012. That’s always validating for sure, as are the resale prices our existing clients are getting when they sell these little jewels we build.
I would add pictures, but that always just turns into a huge debacle. But a good lesson and perspective I always keep -
I think it’s hard to argue my haircut and shave for 550 dirham proved worth every penny. My barber was a super nice guy with limited English from Uzbekistan, and worked in Russia, then somewhere, and now Dubai. I was still unshaven from the safari and the beginning of the trip so it felt good to let someone else do the heavy lift of cleaning me up.
Now off to play my son (Lucas Petersheim) some basketball in the 99 degree heat. I beat him yesterday, and he’s been pouting ever since, but it is true, my 3-part game rarely comes together as nicely as it did yesterday. I think George Clooney called it the ‘old man moves’ but done right, downright hard to defend.
